Thailand’s VAT Denial Shows the Problem They Tried to Hide
Forget the headline for a moment. The real issue is this: Thailand’s government is running out of safe options. Every decision now risks upsetting businesses, the public, or their own political partners. That is why even a small policy like VAT became dangerous.
The Finance Ministry had already planned to raise VAT to 8.5 percent in 2028 and 10 percent in 2030. These numbers were long-term steps to fix Thailand’s growing budget problems. When a government suddenly cancels its own plan, it does not show confidence. It shows that the situation is too fragile to handle even a small change.
Anutin says “Absolutely no increase,” but this is not strength. It is fear. A stronger economy can handle a slight VAT rise. Thailand cannot. Businesses worry about higher costs. People struggle with living expenses. Investors watch the instability. Even a 1.5 percent adjustment could trigger public anger while political tensions and dissolution talk are rising.
This is why the media avoids the real story. Keeping VAT at 7 percent is not a victory. It is a warning sign. VAT affects everyone: restaurants, small shops, market sellers, delivery riders, families. If the government fears backlash from these groups, it shows how limited their space has become.
And when you look at everything else happening, from border pressure to military disagreements, from the AOT embarrassment to Japan’s irritation, the picture becomes clear. Thailand is not acting from strength. It is trying to avoid the next crisis.
When a government cannot increase a tax by even 1.5 percent, it tells you the system is weaker than it appears. The refusal to touch VAT exposes more than they wanted anyone to see.
Sometimes the easiest way to understand a country’s condition is to notice what its leaders no longer dare to do.
Midnight